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China Steelmaking Capacity Balloons

SEOUL -- World steel industry leaders are worried that mounting overcapacity in China could push down steel prices at some point, despite continued steady demand growth for their products world-wide.

"In coming years, there will be massive, massive excess capacity" in China, said Nicholas Lardy, an expert on China and a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, in a speech to a group of steel industry executives at the International Iron and Steel Institute annual meeting, which is being held in South Korea this week.

China added about 50 million metric tons of steelmaking capacity in 2004 and will add more than that in 2005, taking that country's annual steelmaking capacity to roughly 400 million tons, according to Mr. Lardy. That is enough to meet the country's annual demand until 2015, he said. Mr. Lardy said government efforts in China to consolidate steel capacity and limit expansion could take longer than expected, largely because of resistance from Chinese provincial governments that seek to foster local steelmakers.

The Chinese buildup comes at a time when producers have stumbled in efforts to curb capacity growth elsewhere in the world by cutting back on subsidies paid by governments. Talks at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris aimed at ending state subsidies have fallen apart as trade representatives couldn't agree upon how to implement changes. "These [talks] are not likely to restart in the near future," said Ian Christmas, secretary general of the IISI. "We believe it is still a real issue that, at some stage, if we want a competitive dynamic and open business, we have to address."

In addition to China, steel companies also are grappling with lofty prices for raw materials and energy and face growing competition from rival materials such as plastics, aluminum and cement in key markets such as automotive and containers. And yet, the industry is also enjoying one of its strongest periods of prices and profits as the result of a global commodity boom.

"We are in a very prosperous industry and we believe the outlook for next year is very positive," said Mr. Christmas. "We are not saying it is all gloom and doom. We are saying there are risks and dangers going forward."

Mr. Christmas criticized the world's three largest iron ore companies -- Brazilian mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, or CVRD, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton -- for having a natural monopoly with 70% market share for iron ore shipped across the oceans. Steelmakers use iron ore as an ingredient to melt in their furnaces, mixing it with other materials, to create steel.

"Their current market behavior could be a threat to the long-term competitive position of steel," said Mr. Christmas. He and other executives said the organization doesn't plan to raise anticompetitive issues against the iron ore industry at international trade bodies. Instead, he said, steel companies and others are seeking to buy up iron ore mines and bring more iron ore into supply. Mittal Steel Co. of the Netherlands, for example, is pursuing iron ore mines in Liberia.

The IISI estimates steel demand in 2005 stands at 998 million metric tons, up 3% globally from 2004. It expects demand to grow even more in 2006 with an estimated 1.04 billion tons consumed, up 4% or 5% from 2005.

posted by Henry @ 1:26 AM 0 comments

Prices Fall in Manhattan As Housing Market Cools

NEW YORK -- Housing market watchers can exhale. Prices in some of the nation's hottest markets are at least leveling off, and in some cases even coming down.

In New York, a report prepared by appraisal company Miller Samuel Inc. on behalf of real estate firm Prudential Douglas Elliman released Tuesday showed that average Manhattan apartment prices fell nearly 13% in the third quarter 2005 to $1.15 million from $1.32 million in the second quarter.

Housing stock is also staying on the market longer, the report showed, with the number of days it takes to sell an apartment increasing a month to 133 days from 102 days.

The report was confirmed by other research, including reports from two other real estate firms, Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property. These showed that average apartment prices in Manhattan were down 11% in the third quarter for co-ops to $1.04 million from $1.17 million in the second quarter, and down 10% for condominiums to $1.28 million from $1.42 million in the previous quarter.

Data released earlier in the week by real estate appraisal firm Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson Inc. showed that average Manhattan apartment prices for co-ops and condos south of 96th Street fell 3.9% to $1.09 million, the first time in two years the firm had seen a drop in prices. The decline followed a drop in overall demand, according to Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson managing director Michael Martin, as the number of sales dropped 33% to 1,031 from 1,528.

The Prudential Douglas Elliman report also showed a decline in sales, albeit more modest. In the third quarter, the number of sales dropped 8.4% to 1,997 from the prior quarter's total of 2,181, "as mixed economic news weakened demand," the firm said in a press release.

Not Just New York

The apparent slowing in the New York housing market followed signs of cooling off in markets across the country. The most recent national data have been mixed, while reports from specific West Coast markets have been pointing to a possible slowing of demand.

New home sales reported last week fell 9.9% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.24 million units in August, according to the Commerce Department. But the pace of existing home sales rose 2% in August to 7.29 million units, a near-record pace, according to the National Association of Realtors.

In San Francisco, the number of homes sold in August dropped 9.9% to 662 from 735 sold in the same month a year ago, though median prices still climbed a healthy 11.5% to $745,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems. In San Diego, the number of homes sold dropped 3.6% to 5,379 from 5,580 a year earlier, and the median price rose just 2.1% to $493,000.

With home prices appreciating routinely at a double digit pace for a couple of years in certain metropolitan markets, analysts have long predicted a slowdown would eventually take hold. In New York, prices "are going to reach a level that just can't be sustained," said Mr. Martin, the managing director at Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson.

Particularly with short and long-term interest rates heading higher, affordability may start to make buyers more resistant to high prices in the coming months, he said, at least in the under-$2 million market where buyers are more sensitive to changes in interest rates.

But so far, Mr. Martin said he doesn't see signs of a bubble bursting. More likely, he said, there will be "a soft landing," in which prices ease up a bit and then level off for a time.

posted by Henry @ 1:24 AM 0 comments

日民間企業平均薪資連續7年減少

日本的國稅廳根據去年所得稅繳納情形調查了在民間企業工作的人的平均薪資，結果發現民間企業平均年所得為438萬8000日圓(約台幣131萬6400元)，較前一年下滑了5萬5000日圓(約台幣1萬6500元)，已是連續7年的減少。

　　而去年一年在日本民間企業工作賺取所得的工作者數，也較前一年少了13萬人(0.3%)來到4453萬人，整體薪資總額也較前一年減少了2兆8529 億日圓(1.4%)，來到195兆4110億日圓，這個數字也是連續7年減少。

　　之所以會減少，依國稅廳的評估，主要是因為換工作的人增加，且改變企業雇用型態從正職改為兼職或是打工的企業增加，是構成平均薪資減少的主要原因。

　　而平均薪資再細分的話，可分為薪資、津貼和獎金兩個部分，薪資、津貼的部分也是下滑了1.0%，來到370萬1000日圓(約台幣111萬300 元)，而獎金的部分則是下滑2.0%，來到68萬7000日圓(約台幣20萬6100元)。

　　再依男女別來看的話，男性的平均薪資是540萬9000日圓(約台幣162萬2700元)，較前一年下滑了3萬3000日圓(約台幣9900元)；而 女性的平均薪資則是273萬6000日圓(約台幣82萬800元)，較前一年減少了1萬2000元(約台幣3600元)。

　　在民間企業的薪資持續下降的情況下，政府財政泉源的所得稅額是8兆7988億日圓，比前一年還增加了3339億日圓(3.9%)，是4年來首度反轉上 升，主要原因是從去年開始，所得稅的配偶特別扣除額部分廢止了的影響。所以整體看來，雖然大家都口口聲聲地說日本景氣在復甦，但是事實上還沒有反應到上班 族的薪水及荷包，而且還因政府的稅制改變，繳了更多的稅。
（2005/9/29）

posted by Henry @ 1:29 AM 0 comments

美國市場掀起液晶電視「超低價」行銷戰　　　　

台灣日本綜合研究所副所長
林武雄

從今 年開始，美國的液晶電視市場販賣台數是明顯地增加，其中成長最快的當推「Western House」、「Magnavox」、「Polaroid」等三個品牌。這三個品牌的市佔率在年初就達到10%，同時每月都呈現快速的成長、可謂來勢洶 洶。至今年6月底，全美地區已突破30%的市佔率。

　 　根據調查指出，這三家品牌「人氣」走紅的理由在於「低價位」。就以26吋液晶電視而言，Sharp、三星等名牌的商品店頭售價是1500美元左右，但前 面所言三種品牌相同尺寸的商品卻便宜四成。在量販店Circuit City較年長店員推薦的理由是：「Polaroid的液晶電視畫質不輸Sharp和SONY，但價格便宜、品質又好。」年輕的店員則是推薦 Magnavox液晶電視。據量販店Best Buy店員的分析指出：「買Sharp、SONY、Sansung都是高所得的中高年消費者，而買Western House等品牌則是傾向年輕顧客居多。」據調查公司Displaysearch 在9月1日（2005年）發表，大型液晶電視（10吋以上）價格下滑現象，已出現止跌回升。液晶電視價格下滑，對家電廠商的業績無疑是沈重壓力。

　 　在美國，這三個品牌在家電和照相機領域過去都極富盛名，曾幾何時出現經營困難，先後走上被併購的命運。其中，Magnavox是賣給荷蘭的家電大廠 Phlips、Western House是被台灣奇美併購、2001年Polaroid倒閉後併入美國投資公司的集團內。併購的理由是：「這些品牌在美國有相當的知名度，有利於對美國 市場的行銷。」Phlips在美國擁有高知名度，但Magnavox在美國市場卻是以低價位行銷聞名；Western House的液晶電視是由台灣奇美集團所生產；Polaroid的產品是由中國大陸家電廠商生產；它們的行銷策略就是販賣低價位商品來奪取市場，過去的成 功經驗又再度運用到液晶電視的市場行銷上。

　 　「低價位」取向品牌的興起在美國是見怪不怪。美國的消費者非常重視價格取向的行銷模式。過去，映像管電視、DVD和電腦都受到低價位品牌席捲市場。據高 盛證券家電部門專家的分析指出：「液晶電視和其他家電製品同樣都是低價位品牌抬頭，但來勢洶洶卻在預料之外。」「低價位」品牌急速崛起是數位家電的特性， 也是宿命。液晶電視的構造和電腦液晶螢幕極相近，它是經由面板和影像處理晶片的零件組裝就能成為產品，再加上亞洲國家也擁有這項技術。因此，盡管是美國的 品牌，沒有品質光是低價位要行銷也難。例如Western House等品牌的液晶電視在美國販賣，但實際製品的製造技術是由中國和台灣廠商所提供。

　 　在美國市場一枝獨秀的Sharp，去年擁有30%的市佔率，但今年春天卻降到20%，市佔率和Magnavox已不分軒輊。Sharp濱野稔重專務說： 「跟低價位品牌進行對抗，無異於陷入價格戰的泥沼，我們將另起爐灶。」於是，Sharp重新擬定戰略，不再搶攻20~30吋中型市場，而以30~40吋大 型液晶電視為市場的普及目標。其他日系廠商也東施效顰，採取同樣策略。理由是畫面愈大愈能表現出畫質的差距，而畫質的處理技術又是日系廠商的不傳手藝。

　 　目前美國超薄電視市場還有一個令人矚目的地方，那就是起居室、客廳的電視機市場王座爭霸戰。美國是以大畫面為主流，既使是超薄家用電視的主戰場還是在 40吋以上大型畫面。市場的主角是以超大型內投式電視機（Rear Projector TV）見長的SONY和松下的電漿電視。如今，兩雄對決、烽火四起；40吋大型內投式電視一直是雄霸美國電視機市場。過去，映像管技術是主流。自2000 年以來，採用最尖端零組件的MD（Micro Display)方式新型超大內投式電視機推出市場；主要是40吋以上大型畫面電視在畫質和節省空間上，獲得了突破性的改良，價格上也為消費者接受，因此 市場呈現爆發性的成長。

　 　無疑地，電漿電視已威脅到內投式電視機的市場，銷售業績來勢洶洶、成長亮麗。電漿電視推出之初價格偏高，但松下大幅的降價後和MD內投電視機的價格差距 縮小。現在SD型（標準畫質）電漿電視42吋價格是低於2000美元，因此急速地侵蝕到MD的市場；2005年9月3日，Sharp町田社長說：「要檢討 內投式電視機從市場撤退」。Sharp是世界上最大的液晶電視機製造廠商，但Sharp在美國販賣內投式電視機（Rear Projector）的市場佔有率還不到5%。

　 　在美國市場內投式電視機擁有40%的SONY，已面臨到一股危機感。SONY電視機市場頻頻失守，美國MD內投式電視機市場可算是最後的一座堡壘。據說 今年夏天，SONY預定推出低於2000美元的新產品投入市場，以背水一戰的決心來跟松下一決勝負；最近松下也發表，預定在11月推出65吋新型電漿電 視，年產12000台，店頭價格設定在99萬日幣。首次採用世界最先進的Hi-Vision播放系統，畫面影像細緻、畫質清晰逼真，同時畫質也大幅提升。 松下以一貫生產做武器、徹底削減商品原價、設定讓市場震撼的價格，來對抗低價位液晶電視的威脅。

　 　據美國Displaysearch在8月18日（2005年）的發表：「05年第二季世界電視機佔有率調查結果」。映像管、超薄電視合計總額，SONY 市佔率8.8%，名次從第一位退居為第三，三星躍居第一、市佔率9.9%。SONY超薄型電視因市場對應失策，痛失王座、地位動搖。松下位居第三，但電漿 電視在市場還是穩居龍頭地位。

參考資料：
(1) 渡邊清治、高木あやか「猛威振るう激安〝ブランド〞」，2005.9.3週刊東洋經濟，頁20~21。
(2) 「リアプロ、プラズマの霸權爭い過熱」，2005.9.3週刊東洋經濟，頁21。
(3) 「シャープ、リアプロジェクションＴＶから撤退の可能性」http: //news.goo.ne.jp/news/reuters/keizai/20050905/JAPAN-186699.html
(4) 「液晶：大型価格、1年ぶりに下げ止まる」http: //news.goo.ne.jp/news/infostand/it/20050905/1401242.html
(5) 「テレビ世界シェア：サムスンが初の首位、ソニーは3位転落」http: //news.goo.ne.jp/news/infostand/it/20050822/1399515.html
(6) 「松下、キヤノン　薄型ＴＶ価格競争激化」 http://news.goo.ne.jp/news/sankei/keizai/20050826/m20050826015.html
(7) 「松下、65型の高品位対応プラズマテレビを11月発売」 http://news.goo.ne.jp/news/reuters/keizai/20050825/JAPAN-185696.html

posted by Henry @ 1:25 AM 0 comments